Will the coming weeks see the arrival of Britain’s third Chancellor in a little over 18 months?
Debate has been raging as to whether Philip Hammond, installed at the Treasury in 2016, will be still in his post following the cabinet reshuffle that the Prime Minister has planned for this month.
Mr Hammond was originally thought to be at risk following a difficult Budget last spring, in which a groundswell of opposition forced the Government to execute a hasty U-turn over plans to overhaul National Insurance (NI) for the self-employed.
He nonetheless remained at No 11 in the limited reshuffle which followed June’s General Election and was thought to have secured his position by delivering a far more successful Budget in November.
However, with the issue of Brexit continuing to cause ructions in Theresa May’s administration – Mr Hammond is known to be one of the cabinet’s leading advocates of a softer approach – there has once again been speculation that his job may yet be at risk. Today he refused to rule out Britain remaining in the customs union following on from our departure.
Mrs May is set to shake-up her top team following the resignation of her de facto deputy, Damian Green, shortly before Christmas.
The Daily Mail reported this week that the Prime Minister had yet to decide whether to limit herself to a few small changes or if she should conduct a more wide-reaching reshuffle, which could include the departure of Mr Hammond.
As far as possible successors go, the Westminster Lobby has previously named Business Secretary Greg Clark, the Home Secretary Amber Rudd and Communities Secretary Sajid Javid as potential frontrunners.
Ms Rudd, often seen as a safe pair of hands, would be the first woman to hold the post, while Mr Clark has notably championed bolstering regional economies during his stint at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS).
Any reshuffle would nonetheless be complicated by Mrs May’s need to maintain a careful balance of Remain/Leave supporters at the top table. The fact that Mr Hammond favoured remaining in the EU is unlikely to mean that he would be replaced by a Brexiteer.
